We are just hours away from the start of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Trevor Lawrence will be the first-overall pick. Zach Wilson is expected to go second.
After that, it’s wide open.
A lot can change over the final few hours before commissioner Roger Goodell steps to the podium, and trades make accurately predicting the final order that much more difficult.
Based on all of the information available right now, here is how I think the 2021 NFL Draft will play out.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Lawrence is -20000 to go first overall. Congratulations to the Jaguars’ new franchise quarterback.
2. New York Jets: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Once they decided the second quarterback on the board has a higher ceiling than what they had on their roster, the Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers. Wilson is -5000 to go second overall.
3. San Francisco 49ers: QB Mac Jones, Alabama
This is easily the most interesting pick in the draft. The 49ers gave up a ton to move up to No. 3 and get their franchise quarterback. There has been plenty of discussion about who the third-best quarterback on the board is. Tonight, we’ll finally learn Kyle Shanahan’s opinion on the matter. I’ll bet on Jones to be selected over Trey Lance and Justin Fields.
4. Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
Matt Ryan will turn 36 in May. Still, the Falcons have the fourth pick and not the first pick, which means new head coach Arthur Smith is better off choosing Ryan and a generational talent at tight end than he would be rolling the dice on Lance or Fields. Pitts will be the first non-quarterback off the board.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
I flip-flopped on this pick a couple of times before landing on Chase. The Bengals need to upgrade their protection for Joe Burrow. However, they can’t afford to pass on Chase when they can take him here and then bolster their offensive line in the second and third round. Cincinnati will select the top wide receiver in the draft here.
6. Miami Dolphins: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
I’m not sold on Tua Tagovailoa. He did nothing as a rookie to convince me he can be a franchise quarterback. Still, the Dolphins invested a high first-round pick on Tua and brought in some insurance in Jacoby Brissett. So, while I can’t shake the idea that Miami should draft a quarterback, they still need to find some help for whoever their starter will be and they can get one of the best available options with this pick. With Pitts and Chase gone, the Dolphins will take Smith.
7. Detroit Lions: QB Trey Lance, NDSU
The Lions received two first-round picks, a third-round pick and Jared Goff from the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for Matt Stafford. That means the Rams thought Stafford was so much better than Goff and his current contract that they were willing to give up all of that to make the swap. If that’s the case, how could the Lions possibly feel comfortable with Goff as their franchise quarterback? Detroit has several needs to fill, which could lead a trade. If they stay put, I think the Lions address their most important position with a quarterback.
8. Carolina Panthers: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
I’ll be the first to admit I’m higher on Sam Darnold than most at this point. The Panthers still have several holes to fill to become a contender. After trading for Darnold, I think they’ll shore up their protection in an effort to help give their new franchise quarterback a chance to succeed. They should be thrilled if Sewell falls to them at eight.
9. Denver Broncos: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
This was another tough one. Teddy Bridgewater could become Denver’s league-leading 10th different starting quarterback since they won Super Bowl 50. Bridgewater and Drew Lock are very different passers, and I’m not sure either one is good enough to lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl. With Fields still on the board, I think John Elway takes his best shot at a potential franchise quarterback and drafts him with the ninth-overall pick.
10. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
I’m quietly hoping the Cowboys take another receiver, but the most realistic outcome is that they take the top cornerback on the board. The need is too big to pass on Surtain here.
11. New York Giants: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
No team was worse than the Giants in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate last season. Daniel Jones was sacked on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than any quarterback other than Carson Wentz. The Giants invest in some protection for Jones heading into a make-or-break season.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
While Jaylen Waddle is still available, it makes more sense for Philadelphia to go cornerback here. If the Cowboys take Surtain, the Eagles will take Horn with this pick.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
The Chargers have a legitimate franchise quarterback and the playmakers he needs to thrive. Now they get the chance to upgrade the protection for Justin Herbert with the third lineman off the board.
14. Minnesota Vikings: OT Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
The Vikings will be disappointed that Slater and Darrisaw are off the board here. Minnesota addresses a major need and takes the best available lineman with this pick.
15. New England Patriots: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
With the top quarterbacks off the board, New England can add a weapon at wide receiver and target a passer in the later rounds. The Patriots had the fifth-fewest catches of 20-plus yards in the NFL last season. Waddle gives them the deep threat they have lacked for years.
16. Arizona Cardinals: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
The Cardinals fill a massive need after losing Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick this off-season.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
The Raiders have a number of needs to fill. I’ll bet on them to take the top linebacker on the board.
18. Miami Dolphins: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
After getting Tua some help with their first pick, Miami could trade back here and pick up some more draft capital. I have them adding one of the top pass rushers in the draft at 18th overall.
19. Washington Football Team: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Washington needs a quarterback. However, with the top passers off the board, they’ll have to settle for one of the top remaining pass catchers to complete an off-season overhaul of their wide receiver core.
20. Chicago Bears: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
The markets agree the Bears need to make their line a priority – Chicago is +190 to draft an offensive lineman. Jenkins is the best available here.
21. Indianapolis Colts: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
The Colts are desperate for pass rushers. Ojulari might be the best edge rusher in this class.
22. Tennessee Titans: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
The Titans lost Adoree’ Jackson, Malcolm Butler, Desmond King and Kenny Vaccaro. Newsome should help fill a void.
23. New York Jets: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
Najee Harris is the favourite to be the first running back off the board, but there has been plenty of talk linking the Jets to Etienne, who has a draft day over/under is 31.5. I’ll take the under and roll the dice on the Jets pairing Etienne with Wilson.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Walker Little, Stanford
The Steelers lost three of their five starting offensive linemen from last season. They will address a clear need with this pick.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
Most mocks I’ve seen have Barmore going higher, but I think he could slip a little bit. The betting prop for Barmore’s over/under is 23.5, so I don’t feel like this is a major slide.
26. Cleveland Browns: S Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, TCU
The Browns could add a pass rusher with this pick, but after losing several key veterans in their secondary I have them filling a different need here.
27. Baltimore Ravens: WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU
The best thing the Ravens could do is add as many weapons as possible for Lamar Jackson. Can Marshall follow in fellow LSU alumni Justin Jefferson’s footsteps?
28. New Orleans Saints: WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss
The Saints have needs on both sides of the football. However, with Emmanuel Sanders leaving and Michael Thomas coming off an injury-plagued season, I think Sean Payton gets his new starting quarterback a weapon to help the transition to the post-Drew Brees era.
29. Green Bay Packers: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
One year after passing on a pass-catching weapon in the first round, the Packers finally get Aaron Rodgers another playmaker at wide receiver.
30. Buffalo Bills: RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Buffalo could go in a couple of different directions with this pick, including addressing its offensive line. However, the Bills are +210 to draft a running back with their top pick. They get the top-ranked running back on the board at the back end of the first round.
31. Baltimore Ravens: OT Dillon Radunz, NDSU
The Ravens turned a lot of heads when they traded Orlando Brown to the rival Kansas City Chiefs. They will use this pick they got in that deal to draft his replacement.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas
The Buccaneers could go in a few different directions if they hold on to this pick. If they stay put at No. 32, I think they will bolster the protection in front of Tom Brady.
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2021-04-29 16:37:36Z
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