There’s a stat I’m familiar with hearing about from my time playing and coaching that oddly isn’t a part of the public conversation, which is simply “combined special teams.” No need to overthink this one, it’s just a snapshot of “how are our special teams?”
If you combine your power player percentage with your penalty kill percentage, there’s a clear baseline in that a total above 100 is good, and below it is bad. So if your PP scores 20 per cent of the time and your PK keeps the puck out of the net 80 per cent of the time you’re … fine. Nothing to see there, that’s a combined 100.
Of course, the top teams have more talented players, so their PP will exceed that 20 per cent number. Certain teams have great personnel for keeping pucks out while down a man and so they exceed 80 per cent. The best teams can do both.
This is an area where the Toronto Maple Leafs have been outplayed in the post-season in the past. Not last year, where the Blue Jackets had the fifth-worst PP in the NHL and showed it in the post-season, but in the previous three playoff series that went the distance, special teams may have made the difference. Here are playoff power play goals by year:
2017: Washington: 5, Toronto: 3, total -2.
2018: Boston: 7, Toronto: 4, total -3
2019: Boston: 7, Toronto 3, total -4.
As you can see, it was the PK burning them, not the PP.
Against Columbus the Leafs managed to finish with two power play goals for and none against, which was aided by that aforementioned fortuitous draw. During that regular season the Leafs were 21st in the NHL on the PK (77.7 per cent), but Columbus was weak enough (they had a 16.4 per cent success rate) they couldn’t take advantage there.
To get back to the whole “combined special teams” thing, in 2019-20 the Leafs sat at 100.8, thanks to a PP that clicked along at a 23.1 per cent rate. This year after a hot start to the power play they’ve struggled a great deal, at least in terms of actual goals (more on that later). Their combined special teams total currently sits at 98.3, with a 21.7 per cent power play and 76.6 per cent penalty kill.
If you sort the NHL table by points percentage, here are the combined special teams of the top-10 teams in the NHL right now.
Vegas: 104.2
Carolina: 111.6
Colorado: 104.2
Tampa Bay: 105.9
Washington: 103.8
Toronto: 98.3
Florida: 100.9
Pittsburgh: 99.7
Minnesota: 100.8
Boston: 107.3
Only Pittsburgh joins the Leafs below 100 in the top-10, and the next four teams exceed 100 as well. Expanding it to the top 15 in points percentage, the next five look like this:
Islanders: 102.1
Edmonton: 105.9
Winnipeg: 105.6
Rangers: 104.3
Nashville: 92.9
North Division playoff teams, then:
Toronto: 98.3
Edmonton: 105.9
Winnipeg: 105.6
Montreal: 96.1
The quick and dirty on all this is the Leafs' special teams have been kinda bad compared to the good teams, which is all that’s left standing in the post-season. I could’ve saved us a lot of time here and just started with that.
This year’s first round draw may yet be good to the Leafs as well, in that Montreal sits 21st in the NHL on the PP with a 19.1 per cent rate (Calgary is 17th). That would take some pressure off their flailing PK. But if they hope to move on from the North, they’re going to have to face one of Edmonton or Winnipeg, who sit third and fourth on the PP in the entire NHL, scoring 26.3 and 25.4 per cent of the time, respectively. That should give Leafs fans some vivid flashbacks to the pain incurred by the Bruins in previous years.
So, how much of a problem is this, and what should we expect in the post-season? Could this be a weak spot that derails the Leafs?
Here’s the good news: the Leafs' special teams are likely as bad as they could statistically be, and I expect them to get better. Their underlying numbers are better than their actual outcomes right now on both sides of the coin.
I’ll be quick on the power play, because I don’t think fans look at this group and see a team that’s not going to be able to convert on the power play. What they see is a group that seems like it should score every time they get out there based on the name bars involved, so expectations get crazy-high, and when they struggle at all it's baffling.
We’ll look at “per 60” numbers to keep the field level. On the power play the Leafs generate the seventh-most shot attempts in the NHL, the fourth most actual shots, the most scoring chances and the most high-danger scoring chances in the NHL. Great, talented units like the Oilers and Avalanche don’t generate as many opportunities.
Despite all their talent, on the PP Toronto's scoring chance shooting percentage is in the bottom-10, and only a dozen teams have a worse overall shooting percentage on the power play. Toronto has too much shooting skill for that to continue, let alone get worse.
It’s not worth much more breath – the Leafs' PP has been flawed, they had a long run of baffling ineptitude, but they create a ton, they’ve scored in three of their past five games (where they’ve got PP attempts), they’re just outside the top-10 in actual PP percentage, and I wouldn’t be overly worried about this side of things come playoffs.
The penalty kill is obviously more cause for concern because it’s been a persistent issue (they’ve been in the league’s bottom half since 2018-19), but also because Winnipeg and Edmonton loom in Round 2, and because just about any team that gets into Round 3 will certainly have an elite PP1.
However, there’s reason to believe Toronto will be better in this category, too. Their underlying numbers here are a little more chipper than you’d expect, and that hasn’t always been the case with their weaker PKs in the past.
In terms of shot attempts against (per 60), the Leafs are fourth-best in the NHL, just a hair behind the Boston Bruins in third. They’re inside the league’s best-10 teams in actual shots against, expected goals against, and high danger attempts against. They sit 12th in overall scoring chances against.
Not bad for a PK just outside the league’s bottom-five.
Where things go off the rails here has been simple: they’ve got truly terrible goaltending on the PK, particularly from Freddy Andersen. There’s good news for Leafs fan there, too.
One is that Freddy hasn’t typically been an awful PK goaltender, and him getting healthy and back to form should improve things. They’ve been getting better PK goaltending of late from Jack Campbell (no goals against in his past four starts), so things have trended better on the PK.
Some general regression should be expected based on their ability to limit dangerous attempts against. Combine that with the addition of Nick Foligno to the forward group, and potentially Riley Nash, and you could see a team that gets stronger on the PK heading towards the post-season. It may not become a strength, but all the arrows point in the right direction, at least.
Nothing about what the Leafs do on either the PP or PK is systematically remarkable, and it by and large comes down to execution. On the PK that means work ethic, commitment to stops and starts, and the willingness to get in lanes, block shots, and win battles. On the PP that means being crisp, deceptive and, let’s face it, talented. You’re asking guys to take what’s there and create. You can’t coach every aspect of it.
While they haven’t scored or kept pucks out at a rate in line with the best teams in the league, Toronto's underlying special teams numbers imply they can hang with the better half of the league in those categories. If the results fall closer in line with their processes to date, what looks like a team weakness may not be such a problem after all.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiUmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNwb3J0c25ldC5jYS9uaGwvYXJ0aWNsZS9tYXBsZS1sZWFmcy1jb25jZXJuZWQtc3BlY2lhbC10ZWFtcy1wbGF5b2Zmcy_SAVFodHRwczovL3d3dy5zcG9ydHNuZXQuY2EvbmhsL21hcGxlLWxlYWZzLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1zcGVjaWFsLXRlYW1zLXBsYXlvZmZzL3NuLWFtcC8?oc=5
2021-04-30 17:12:00Z
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