What are the odds of a team erasing a four-goal deficit with 21 minutes left to win a hockey game? Based on league-average scoring rates, 1 in 357 -- and that doesn’t take into account it was the last place Ottawa Senators who did it against a top-5 team in the Toronto Maple Leafs.
To call the Sens comeback on Monday night improbable would be understating what actually went down at Scotiabank Arena. In the aftermath, media and Maple Leafs fans alike are pointing fingers in a few different directions. Perhaps it’s in the Maple Leafs' DNA -- after all, the team has blown seemingly insurmountable leads in recent years. John Tavares and William Nylander are taking some heat for their even-strength play and the last line of defence, Frederik Andersen, did allow six goals in the loss.
The reality is a good team lost one game in spectacular fashion.
While hanging the loss on the goaltender would be unfair given how poorly the team played in front of him in the final 21 minutes, it is fair to question whether Andersen can be capable of bailing his team out when they go into these defensive lulls. Andersen is in the final season of a five-year, $25 million contract and is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Andersen is coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career, finishing 2019-20 with a .909 save percentage, the lowest he’s ever posted. In 14 games this season, Andersen’s save percentage sits at .901 but that only tells part of the story as save percentages are down across the league, especially in the high-scoring Scotia North Division.
Andersen is tied for the league lead in games played and wins, which counts for something when evaluating performance-based statistics like save percentage. Not all goalies are capable of playing as many games as Andersen has as a Maple Leaf and only a handful in the league are capable of putting up elite numbers while doing so -- think Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck.
Performance-wise, Andersen’s numbers have been decidedly average this season. Among 49 goalies who have played at least five games, Andersen sits middle of the pack in GAA, save percentage and goals saved above expectation.
Andersen may not win his team as many games as the elite goalies in the NHL, but he also won’t lose you many. For a Maple Leafs team that can shoot the lights out and has improved defensively, that’s likely all they need from their goaltender to compete for top spot in the division and beyond in the playoffs.
Understandably, that may not be satisfactory for a Maple Leafs fan base that has seen Andersen play at a higher level in recent years and are wondering if he can get back to that calibre of play.
One thing that has plagued Andersen in recent years is having an identifiable weakness in the net. Last season, it was five-hole where Andersen allowed a league-high 26 goals. This season, that hasn’t been a problem as Andersen has allowed only four goals in that area, proportionate to league averages.
However, another leaky area has popped up this season: high-blocker. The Senators scored four of their six goals against Andersen in this area Monday night, including the overtime goal by Evgenii Dadonov.
Andersen has been beat high-blocker an astounding 19 times this season, more than any goalie in the NHL. The 19 high-blocker goals account for almost half the total goals Andersen has allowed.
Nearly one out of every four shots Andersen has faced high-blocker have gone in this season and his .776 save percentage on shots in this location ranks 41st among 49 qualified goalies. This area of the net has not been a sore spot for him in years past so it could be a matter of small sample size. However, the fact that Andersen has had one area of the net that has given him more trouble than any goalie in the league over the past couple of seasons is concerning, especially considering the Maple Leafs will have a decision to make as to whether he will be their goalie of the future beyond this season.
Not all goals are scored the same way and if you watch all the goals that have beat Andersen high-blocker this season, there isn’t much of a pattern to suggest that one shot type is giving him problems. In all likelihood, this is probably more of an early trend than a major cause for concern.
All-in-all, Andersen has not shown recently that he’s a top-tier goalie, but he certainly wasn’t the main reason the Maple Leafs collapsed against the Senators Monday night. Toronto is still 11-3-2 and first place in the North Division -- one spectacular loss should not overshadow what has been an excellent start to the season.
That said, it will be interesting to see how Andersen and the Maple Leafs respond Wednesday night. And while the disproportionate amount of goals against scored high-blocker may prove to be nothing more than an early season aberration you can be sure that opposing teams, like the Senators, have noticed.
We’ll see tonight if it’s an area of the net they target on Andersen.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiXGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNwb3J0c25ldC5jYS9uaGwvYXJ0aWNsZS9hbmFseXppbmctZnJlZGVyaWstYW5kZXJzZW5zLXBsYXktY2FuLWhlbHAtY2FycnktbGVhZnMv0gFbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc3BvcnRzbmV0LmNhL25obC9hbmFseXppbmctZnJlZGVyaWstYW5kZXJzZW5zLXBsYXktY2FuLWhlbHAtY2FycnktbGVhZnMvc24tYW1wLw?oc=5
2021-02-17 18:12:00Z
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