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Me? I think the coach also has some explaining to do
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There’s no shortage of disappointment in Edmonton. The Oilers are knocked out of the playoffs just as it seemed they had a clear path to the Stanley Cup finals.
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There’s also no shortage of criticism, with everyone from the players to the coaches to management under some amount of fire.
But four players are on the hockey hot seat in particular: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Stuart Skinner and Kailer Yamamoto.
These are four big name Oilers, all part of the team’s Core-12, the seven forwards, four d-men and one goalie who form the heart of any NHL team.
The criticism is widespread, but I’ll focus on some of what I heard today on Oilers Now, as it’s by far the most popular and authoritative (given host Bob Stauffer’s knowledge as an NHL insider) radio show on the team.
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Hockey commentator John Shannon singled out Nugent-Hopkins for his lack of production.
Said Shannon: “The guy that really sticks out … is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the one guy that you wonder what was going on? I was semi-joking with someone this morning, saying, ‘I really hope he’s hurt.’ Because that was so non-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the way we saw him this regular season.”
Former Oilers winger Georges Laraque talked about Skinner’s iffy play, then moved on to Darnell Nurse, the Oil’s franchise d-man. “There’s also another player I hoped could be better. I was a bit disappointed in him because I know he’s a better d-man than that, and it’s Darnell Nurse.
“I hate calling out guys because I love the guys, I love the game, and I don’t want to criticize the guys. But, you know, he’s better than what we saw in the playoffs. I found he made too many mistakes… He’s paid to be the leader, the best defensive defenceman that could chip in once and awhile for the Oilers. And he wasn’t.”
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As for Yamamoto, host Stauffer mentioned how difficult it is for a smaller player to get the job done in the heavy-hitting and tight-checking of the playoffs.
My take
1. The Oilers lost to Vegas because too many nights Edmonton’s goaltending was second best, because Vegas was a far superior team at even strength, because Edmonton failed to mount a physical forecheck in Games Five and Six, and because Edmonton got some more iffy calls against it in crunch time (the Philip Broberg penalty in Game Five, the Mattias Ekholm non-call in Game Six and the bizarrely short Alex Pietrangelo suspension).
2. I’d also add that in Game Six, coach Jay Woodcroft made two major tactical mistakes, starting goalie Skinner over Jack Campbell (a move that I also mistakenly thought was the best course of action) and because Woodcroft matched up the weak-checking line of Leon Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamato against the Vegas power trio of Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault and Ivan Barbashev.
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Before Woodcroft juggled his lines half-way through the game, the Drai line had created two Grade A shot and no goals but had given up four Grade A shots and two goals against.
I don’t know why Woodcroft would put three players who have had struggles on defence against that the Vegas top line, but as soon as I saw the match-up, I feared the worst would come about. Why not go with the strong checking line of Derek Ryan, Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele against the Eichel line, especially when you’re at home and have last line change?
3. When it comes to Nurse, we’ve already noted at The Cult of Hockey many times in our game grades just how inconsistent Nurse has been in the playoffs, alternating OK-to-good games with poor-to-atrocious ones. Too often he has tried to do too much and has been dragged far out of position, abandoning his guard at the front of the Oilers net. Perhaps he was just trying to do too much instead of letting the game come to him. But his over-active play may also be a feature of the Oilers man-to-man defensive system. If so, Vegas certainly made the most of it, pulling Nurse here, there and everywhere in several games.
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Whatever the case, Nurse didn’t play a simple, aggressive and fundamentally sound brand of hockey enough in the playoffs.
Nurse’s iffy defensive play is seen in his high rate of major mistakes at even strength. He made 1.88 major mistakes on Grade A shots per game (15 mins ES), with only Evan Bouchard making a higher rate, 2.05.
By comparison, Brett Kulak was at just 0.51 per game.
Nurse does do the heavy lifting against the toughest opposing lines, so it’s expected he’s going to make mistakes, but that rate is too high if the Oilers have a hope to win the Stanley Cup.
Nurse is known for going over game tape in the summer. Perhaps he and his coaches will put their finger on the changes in tactics he and team need to make to limit Grade A shot and goal-causing mistakes.
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4. Skinner is a rookie, and as Stauffer mentioned, he only ever started six games in a row in the regular season, but was asked to start 12 in a row in the playoffs. Perhaps the extra work and playoff pressure was a touch too much. He did seem tentative at times, not as sharp as he’d been during his best runs of the 2022-23 regular season. Of NHL goalies who played in at least four playoff games in 2023, Skinner’s .883 save percentage ranks 19th out of 21 goalies.
5. Yamamoto? This is the second playoff season in a row where Oilers fans have been left wanting much more from Yamo, and this despite the fact that he made a few huge plays in crunch time both playoff years.
After an injury-plagued season, Yamamoto finds himself in much the same position — with the fans at least — as Jesse Puljujarvi heading into this season. There are a huge number who doubt whether he will ever be a consistent difference-maker in the playoffs. When it comes to goals plus-minus, only Nugent-Hopkins had a worse number than Yamo in these playoffs. Their poor even strength play was also reflected in their Grade A shots plus-minus, the worst numbers on the team for wingers.
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6. As for Nugent-Hopkins, after his spectacular regular season expectations were high for the playoffs. But out of 141 NHL forwards who have played at least 75 minutes in the 2023 playoffs, RNH ranks just 121st in even strength point scoring, 0.75 per 60, the worst number of any qualifying Oilers forward.
Ouch!
This is his third mediocre playoff performance in a row. After playing well against the Chicago Blackhawks in 2020, Nuge’s two-way play has crashed. This is seen in his poor Grade A shots plus-minus in the 2021, 2022 and 2023 playoffs (see chart below).
This is a nasty trend with RNH and it’s something both he and his coaches have to work on. RNH is too good a player to fade so badly in the playoffs three seasons in a row. He found a way to start scoring at even strength in the 2022-23 regular season. His new challenge is to find a way to be an impact player in the 2024 playoffs.
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7. Some people would include Evander Kane on the crap list of the 2023 playoffs, but his run of injuries this year explains part of his problems. First his wrist was sliced open by a skate, then he broke ribs, and now Stauffer reports that Kane played in the playoffs with a broken finger. For all that, Kane did well in his two-way play and was the biggest physical force on the team in the playoffs. He failed to score much, but he did put in a few key goals and no one threw more devastating body checks on the team. I give him a pass myself, though others are free to disagree.
8. Finally, to get back to Woodcroft’s line matching: he tends not to use any kind of checking line against a top attacking line of opposing teams, instead preferring to go power against power, with lines led by McDavid and Draisaitl facing off against the top lines of other teams. I can see the logic in this. It forces Edmonton’s top attacking players to step up on defence. At the same time, I think the Oil might be better served if now and then they used a designated checking line to thwart the top attacking trio of opposing teams. It would give the Oil one more tool in the toolkit come playoff time if Woodcroft gave this idea a run next season. It’s not like what is going on now is any good at holding onto leads. It isn’t. It’s time to experiment.
At the Cult of Hockey
McCurdy: Player grades in elimination Game 6
STAPLES: Bad break, bad call, bad penalties drop Oilers in Game 5
STAPLES: Oilers bring their best in Game 4 victory over Vegas
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinQFodHRwczovL2VkbW9udG9uam91cm5hbC5jb20vc3BvcnRzL2hvY2tleS9uaGwvY3VsdC1vZi1ob2NrZXkveW91LXdvbmRlci13aGF0LXdhcy1nb2luZy1pbi1mb3VyLWJpZy1uYW1lLWVkbW9udG9uLW9pbGVycy1rbm9ja2VkLWZvci1wb29yLXBsYXlvZmYtcGVyZm9ybWFuY2Vz0gEA?oc=5
2023-05-16 02:15:00Z
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