TORONTO — Over the course of a long, 162-game schedule, a team being able to field its optimal lineup is going to happen a lot less than we initially expect at the outset of the season when everything is rosy.
Injuries happen, players disappoint, and things change quickly.
With playing it safe when it comes to George Springer’s Grade 2 oblique strain the likely scenario, the Toronto Blue Jays may not even have theirs in place on opening day.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll ignore the fact that the $150-million man may not be available for the first few games and instead keep things big picture heading into Thursday’s matinee against the New York Yankees, the clear favourite to claim the American League East pennant this season.
Let’s break the lineup down into thirds and take a look at the options manager Charlie Montoyo has at his disposal this season.
1. CF George Springer (R)
2. 3B Cavan Biggio (L)
3. SS Bo Bichette (R)
If paying attention to Grapefruit League lineups was your thing, it became quite apparent which way Montoyo is leaning when it comes to the top of his stacked lineup.
Springer at the top, followed by Marcus Semien, the other high-profile veteran addition this off-season.
Despite that being Montoyo’s early lean, that’s not the configuration I’m going to call optimal.
That doesn’t mean having Semien in the No. 2 hole is wrong when he’s wielding a hot bat, but it’s a right-handed-heavy lineup and Cavan Biggio’s lefty bat and extreme on-base profile make him an intriguing wedge between Springer and shortstop Bo Bichette.
On days Springer hasn’t been available, Semien has usually been installed atop the lineup, which is the likely look Montoyo uses against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole to begin the season.
It’s clear Semien is going to hit high in the order more often than not at the outset, giving Montoyo four chess pieces to move around early on.
There’s also a good chance we’ll see lineups with Bichette hitting second at some point, pushing one of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. into the three-hole.
That’ll work, too, and that might be the correct analytically-driven lineup.
4. RF Teoscar Hernandez (R)
5. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
6. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)
Behind those top-of-the-order options, Montoyo seems to have settled on Hernandez in the cleanup spot, which makes sense given his 2020 production and the 42 homers he’s bashed over his last 671 plate appearances.
If Hernandez continues that, he could be in line for a monster run-producing season and the first 100-RBI campaign for the Jays since Edwin Encarnacion drove in 127 in 2016.
This is the area where the Jays could get really scary as an offence if Hernandez, Vladdy Jr. and Gurriel Jr. all get hot at the same time and enjoy the type of full seasons that many expect.
All three have shown the ability to go on extreme heaters and Montoyo should probably consider moving them up into the No. 3 spot, pushing Bichette to the two-hole, when they catch fire.
7. 2B Marcus Semien (R)
8. DH Rowdy Tellez (L)/Randal Grichuk (R)
9. C Danny Jansen (R)
Whether it’s Semien or Biggio in the No. 7 spot, this lineup has more depth than Jays fans have seen since 2015.
While Semien will take his walks, his career on-base percentage sits at just .322, compared to Biggio’s .368 mark over his first two seasons.
But in handing Semien $18 million to play second base this season, the Jays are clearly chasing his 2019 slash line of .285/.369/.522, an MVP-calibre season that also produced 33 homers and 10 steals.
If that’s the version of Semien the Jays have on their hands, he’ll stick in that No. 2 spot on most days. He'll definitely be there when a lefty is on the mound.
For what it’s worth, the difference between the No. 2 and No. 7 lineup spots over the course of a full, healthy season is about 69 plate appearances (586 vs. 517).
After looking at seven close-to-every-day players in the first seven spots, Rowdy Tellez and Randal Grichuk will pick up DH, first base and right field at-bats at their respective positions.
Tellez will get an opportunity to face right-handed pitching early in the season, but the big first baseman will need to show his mini 2020 breakout was real in order to stay in the lineup on a consistent basis.
In other words, the leash isn’t long if the numbers aren’t there in May or June and there’s a scenario where Hernandez is getting DH at-bats and Grichuk is in right field on many days.
At the bottom of the lineup, Jansen is a glove-over-bat play, but Alejandro Kirk looms and is clearly the superior offensive option, one that could lengthen this lineup even further when his name is pencilled in.
BENCH
Tellez or Grichuk
C Alejandro Kirk (R)
2B/3B Joe Panik (L)
OF Jonathan Davis (R)
This bench configuration, one that may be in flux all season long with Davis having a minor-league option remaining, has a little bit of everything.
With Semien around, he’s now the primary backup to Bichette at shortstop — and a very good one — which will allow Panik to slide in at second base and the hot corner on occasion.
Kirk will play a late-game pinch-hitting role, while Davis profiles as a late-game speed-and-defence option for Montoyo to turn to.
The two key Triple-A depth chart names to remember are infielder Santiago Espinal and corner outfielder Josh Palacios, who will both see time this season when injuries strike.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMif2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRzbi5jYS9zY290dC1taXRjaGVsbC1kaXNzZWN0aW5nLW9wdGltYWwtbGluZXVwLWNvbmZpZ3VyYXRpb24tb3B0aW9ucy10aGUtYmx1ZS1qYXlzLWNvdWxkLXVzZS10aGlzLXNlYXNvbi0xLjE2MTU3NDHSAYcBaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudHNuLmNhL3Njb3R0LW1pdGNoZWxsLWRpc3NlY3Rpbmctb3B0aW1hbC1saW5ldXAtY29uZmlndXJhdGlvbi1vcHRpb25zLXRoZS1ibHVlLWpheXMtY291bGQtdXNlLXRoaXMtc2Vhc29uLTEuMTYxNTc0MT90c24tYW1w?oc=5
2021-03-30 17:28:23Z
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