Not bad, but not good enough.
That's how I'm summing up my Week 12 NFL picks and predictions. While a 10-4 mark is nothing to sneeze at, I failed to match the success I had the previous week, when I nailed 12 of my 14 Week 11 picks. The Texans, Jets, Seahawks and Titans were among the teams that rewarded my faith in them, but the Patriots and 49ers made me look foolish for picking them to fall to inferior teams at home.
Before we get into this week's picks, I want to wish everyone a great -- and safe -- Thanksgiving. Enjoy the turkey, the stuffing, the pumpkin pie, and of course, the football.
Ready or not, here are my NFL Week 13 picks and predictions.
Chicago (5-6) at Detroit (3-7-1)
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Bears -1
After initially leaning toward the Lions, I'm reversing field and going with the Bears on the strength of their fourth ranked scoring defense. Chicago's offense, a unit that has struggled for much of the season, should be able to have just enough success against a Detroit defense that is 30th in pass defense and 24th against the run.
The pick: Bears 24, Lions 21
Buffalo (8-3) at Dallas (6-5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Dallas -7
After a tough loss in Foxboro, the Cowboys respond with their first win this season over a team with a winning record. Dallas will ride the legs of Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed for 86 yards on 21 carries against New England's vaunted defense. Elliott should help open things up for Dak Prescott, who will need a nice game to strengthen his MVP consideration.
The pick: Cowboys 27, Bills 20
The Ravens dominated the Rams for their seventh straight win, and there's a lot to go over. Will Brinson and the Pick Six Podcast Superfriends break everything down from the game and much more. Listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
New Orleans (9-2) at Atlanta (3-8)
Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Saints -7
The Saints are coming off an ugly home win over the Panthers, while the Falcons -- after two straight wins -- came back to earth in a home loss to the Buccaneers. Expect a big day from quarterback Drew Brees, who will be going up against the NFL's 27th ranked pass defense.
The pick: Saints 31, Falcons 24
Green Bay (8-3) at New York Giants (2-9)
1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Packers -6.5
Green Bay, coming off its worst loss of the season, will rebound on the road against a Giants team that has lost seven straight games. A week after facing the 49ers' formidable defense, Aaron Rodgers and company will look to take advantage of a Giants defense that is 26th in the NFL against the pass and 22nd against the run. New York has also allowed 28 points per game, the 29th highest total in football.
The pick: Packers 28, Giants 21
Washington (2-9) at Carolina (5-6)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Panthers -10
The Panthers, losers of three straight games, will try to get back to .500 with a win over Washington, who on Sunday won their first game with Dwayne Haskins as a starter. While the Redskins are coming into Charlotte with momentum, Christian McCaffrey will propel the Panthers to a win while keeping his team's faint playoff hopes alive. I do see Haskins having success in this game, specifically when throwing to fellow rookie and former college teammate, Terry McLaurin, who leads the Redskins with five touchdown receptions.
The pick: Panthers 34, Redskins 21
San Francisco (10-1) at Baltimore (9-2)
1 p.m. EST (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Ravens -4
San Francisco has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season. Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray had two impressive games against them, while Russell Wilson handed the 49ers their only loss. I don't think San Francisco will fare any better against the NFL's most versatile quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will strengthen his case to be the league's MVP by handing San Francisco its second loss.
The pick: Ravens 24, 49ers 20
Tennessee (6-5) at Indianapolis (6-5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Colts -2.5
The Titans, who lost to the Colts back in Week 2, are 4-1 with Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback. While I'm tempted to go with the Colts at home, I'll ride the hot hand and pick the Titans in a game that could determine which of these two teams will challenge Houston for the AFC South division crown during the final month of the regular season.
The pick: Titans 19, Colts 17
Philadelphia (5-6) at Miami (2-9)
1 p.m. EST (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Eagles -8
While the Dolphins are no longer a guaranteed win, I don't see the Eagles -- who are desperate after losing at home to the Seahawks -- losing in Miami. Expect Philadelphia to pound the ball against the league's 31st ranked run defense, which should led to some nice numbers for running back Miles Sanders, who replaced an injured Jordan Howard in the starting lineup last week. I also expect the Eagles to give some carries to Jay Ajayi, who will be going up against his former team for the first time.
The pick: Eagles 24, Dolphins 13
Tampa Bay (4-7) at Jacksonville (4-7)
1 p.m. EST (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Jaguars -1.5
Two years removed from boasting the NFL's best defense, the Jaguars now have one of the NFL's worst defensive units after allowing 75 points over the past two games. Unless they can force Jameis Winston into some poor decisions, I don't see the Jaguars defeating a Buccaneers team that has played well since their Week 7 bye.
The pick: Buccaneers 31, Jaguars 23
New York Jets (4-7) at Cincinnati (0-11)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Jets -4.5
Le'Veon Bell has yet to rush for over 100 yards during his first year with the Jets. That should change on Sunday, as Bell -- who has two career 100-yard games against the Bengals -- will go up against a Bengals defense that allowed Steelers rookie Benny Snell to rush for 98 yards in last Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh.
The pick: Jets 23, Bengals 14
Cleveland (5-6) at Pittsburgh (6-5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Browns -1.5
The Browns should beat the Steelers on Sunday, two weeks after defeating Pittsburgh by 14 points at home on "Thursday Night Football." Cleveland, with Kareem Hunt in the lineup, has won three straight games, as the Browns' offense is starting to play up to its potential. That being said, I believe the Steelers' defense will have success forcing turnovers against the Browns and Baker Mayfield, who has thrown nearly as many interceptions (13) as touchdown passes (14) this season. Pittsburgh will need another solid day from rookie running back Benny Snell (98 yards on 21 carries) if James Conner's injured shoulder keeps him on the shelf for another week.
The pick: Steelers 16, Browns 14
Los Angeles Rams (6-5) at Arizona (3-7-1)
4:05 p.m. (Fox, fuboTV, try for free)
Point spread: Rams -3.5
The reeling Rams are the perfect Week 13 opponent for the Cardinals, who will be fresh coming off their Week 12 bye. Fans should expect strong performances by quarterback Kyler Murray and running back Kenyan Drake, who combined to rush for 134 yards and a score in Arizona's near upset of the 49ers in Week 11.
The pick: Cardinals 21, Rams 20
Oakland (6-5) at Kansas City (7-4)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Chiefs -9.5
A week after getting punched in the mouth by the Jets, I think the Raiders will put up a fight in Kansas City against a Chiefs team that is 30th in the NFL against the run. That being said, I'm riding with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who should be fresh and ready for their stretch run after having a late bye.
The pick: Chiefs 28, Raiders 24
Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at Denver (3-8)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, CBS All Access)
Point spread: Chargers -2
In a game between two evenly matched teams, I'll go with the Broncos at home against a Chargers team that in the midst of a disappointing season. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers are capable of beating the Broncos on the road, but I believe Denver's second ranked red zone defense will be the difference against the Chargers' 26th ranked red zone offense.
The pick: Broncos 17, Chargers 16
New England (10-1) at Houston (7-4)
8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)
Point spread: Patriots -3
As much as I'd like to pick Deshaun Watson and the Texans at home, Houston's inability to get to the quarterback (they're 29th in the NFL in sacks), along with their defense's 31st and 32nd league standings in third down and red zone defense, are the main reasons why I'm rolling with Tom Brady and the Patriots this week. Oh, the Patriots' top-ranked defense isn't a bad reason to pick them, either.
The pick: Patriots 27, Texans 20
Minnesota (8-3) at Seattle (9-2)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Point spread: Seahawks -3
In a game between two of the NFC's top teams, I'm going with the Seahawks at home while continuing to put the pressure on the 49ers for the NFC West division crown. Kirk Cousins should have success throwing against Seattle's 29th ranked pass defense, but I don't see him out-dueling Russell Wilson, who is among the front-runners to take home the league's MVP award. Third downs will be key in this game, as Minnesota's ninth ranked third down offense will be going up against Seattle's ninth ranked third down defense. This one's going to be good.
The pick: Seahawks 23, Vikings 20
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2019-11-26 14:12:00Z
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