By Stephen J. Nesbitt, Chad Jennings and Cody Stavenhagen
With the World Series parade over and the general manager meetings underway in Scottsdale, Ariz., a free agent unlike any other is officially available.
Shohei Ohtani’s free agency towers over all other storylines this offseason, as the baseball world awaits word of which teams will lavish $500 million offers upon the game’s most valuable player. The free agent market may move slowly at first, as front offices put other pursuits on hold and save their pennies for a guy who will, when healthy, fill two roles with one roster spot.
Whichever team Ohtani chooses will have one of the best left-handed bats in baseball at designated hitter beginning in 2024, and an ace-caliber starting pitcher (coming off his second elbow surgery) in 2025 and beyond. The list of suitors interested in Ohtani is 30 teams long, though we can, with some certainty, mark more than half as unlikely destinations.
Below, in alphabetical order, are 12 teams expected to be in the running for Ohtani in free agency — the 10 teams The Athletic’s Jim Bowden named as likely landing spots, and two more, the Angels and Yankees, that fellow MLB players predicted this summer as top Ohtani options. We’re exploring how signing Ohtani would impact the present and future rosters for each team. How would his bat reshape the lineup, as currently constructed, in 2024? What roster move(s) might follow? And how does Ohtani transform each team’s long-term core?
The most pressing Red Sox need is pitching, which Ohtani would help address eventually, but not in the short term. He also would be another left-handed bat in a lineup that already leans too heavily in that direction. And while the DH spot is technically open following Justin Turner’s departure, plugging that hole with Ohtani would force Masataka Yoshida to play even more left field (where he’s not very good) while limiting the versatility of the lineup (something that was a priority last offseason). That said, Ohtani is the biggest star in the sport, and the Red Sox’s biggest priority might be proving to their fanbase that they’re seriously committed to winning again. Start with Ohtani, then figure out the rest, trusting position player prospects Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel to make the financials work down the road.
First Craig Counsell, now Ohtani?! Dropping Ohtani into this roster would not immediately make the Cubbies World Series favorites, but it certainly would make their lineup much more dangerous. They’ll miss Cody Bellinger, assuming he signs elsewhere in free agency, but having Ohtani alongside Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Christopher Morel would spread fear in the winnable NL Central. The Cubs were in the bottom third in the league last season in OPS from the DH position. Ohtani occupying DH wouldn’t push out any core piece moving forward, either, though it would mean finding a defensive home for Morel — he played all over last season but most often DH — or shopping him as a trade candidate this winter. By 2025, the Cubs could be rolling out a rotation of Ohtani, Justin Steele and some combination of Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Cade Horton.
The Angels raided their farm system to take one last shot at winning with Ohtani, and it backfired. Quickly. Categorically. Dreadfully. But for this exercise we’re imagining him back at the familiar confines in Anaheim, preparing to play out the 2020s with the Angels. This is not hard to imagine. The 2024 roster would look a lot like the 2023 one, minus Ohtani in the rotation. The lineup, barring significant offseason additions, will be top-heavy and prone to slumping at the slightest muscle tweak or stubbed toe suffered by Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Looking to the future, the Angels core, such as it is, will rely on a return to health for Ohtani, Trout and Rendon; on increased and sustained spending by owner Arte Moreno; and on pop-up position player prospects coming from a farm system that has in recent years been primarily focused on drafting pitching. The starting pitching hierarchy will, for the most part, be intact when Ohtani returns to the rotation in 2025 alongside Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson and Patrick Sandoval. It all remains so familiar and yet so unconvincing.
The Dodgers are the presumptive favorites to acquire Ohtani. He already knows the area. They have a roster of stars around him. They have the DH spot open, with J.D. Martínez a free agent. They have the money to spend, and the willingness to spend it. With MVP winners Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Ohtani at the top of the lineup through at least 2027? [low whistle] Seasons will come and go. Other faces in the Los Angeles lineup will change. But those three will still be doing inexplicable damage to opposing pitching staffs. Meanwhile, Ohtani’s right arm also represents a godsend for the Dodgers, who ran out of starters in 2023. For 2025, Ohtani could replace Walker Buehler, who’ll be bound for free agency by then, in the rotation. The Dodgers at that point will still have Dustin May, Bobby Miller and Tony Gonsolin, as well as the Sheehans and Stones and Groves they trotted out there this season. Maybe they’ll even bring back the 37-year-old Clayton Kershaw and his surgically repaired shoulder to round out the band. Hey, while we’re musing on Ohtani in Dodger blue, why not keep dreaming?
We mean no disrespect to Daniel Vogelbach and Mark Vientos, but there seems to be some room to upgrade the DH spot in Queens. They had a .700 OPS from the DH position this season, 11th of the 12 teams on this list. Their lineup could use some lefty power. And for a Mets team that sacrificed a lot of star power at the trade deadline, Ohtani could nicely fill that void as well. As for what acquiring Ohtani would mean for the future of the Mets, haven’t we been asking that question with every move of the Steve Cohen era? Financial resources may well be limitless, and Ohtani is the biggest baseball attraction on the planet. Have new manager Carlos Mendoza stick Ohtani in a lineup with Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo, get some pitching to hold down the rotation fort until next year, and see what happens. A starting pitching one-two punch of Ohtani and Kodai Senga signed through at least 2027 sounds like a lot of wins. This seems to be a case of: Don’t overthink it. The Mets spend a lot of money, and the best player in the game is a free agent. Sign him, then go from there.
A commitment to Ohtani at designated hitter would be a commitment to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield corners — either that or eating a bunch of Stanton’s contract to go a different direction within the next four years. That might not be such a bad thing considering the Yankees already have a cost-controlled young Gold Glove shortstop (Anthony Volpe), a handful of high-upside possibilities in center field (starting with Jasson Domínguez, once he returns from elbow surgery), and some other young position players on the verge who, ideally, can fill other holes in the infield and behind the plate at a low cost. A big left-handed bat like Ohtani’s would nicely balance a right-leaning lineup, and starting in 2025 he could form a dangerous top two in the rotation with staff ace Gerrit Cole. Designated hitter doesn’t seem to be a Yankees priority at the moment — they have used the position as a revolving door in recent years, cycling in veterans for a day of partial rest, and adding Ohtani would mostly put an end to that practice — but signing Ohtani does feel like a very Yankees thing to do. Historically, anyway.
The idea of Ohtani landing in Philadelphia presents some complications — like the fact Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper all will need to play the field each game — but it sure would be fun. Let’s just draw up a 2024 Opening Day lineup:
1. Trea Turner SS
2. Bryce Harper 1B
3. Shohei Ohtani DH
4. Nick Castellanos RF
5. Kyle Schwarber LF
6. Alec Bohm 3B
7. Bryson Stott 2B
8. J.T. Realmuto C
9. Brandon Marsh CF
F-U-N, baby! That’s six hitters — Ohtani, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos and Schwarber — each making $20-plus million per season, all signed through at least 2025. Speaking of 2025, by then the Phillies will badly need Ohtani in the rotation. Aaron Nola is, at the moment, a free agent. Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after 2024. If those three depart, Ohtani would be the Phillies’ clear No. 1 as they work to build out a full rotation.
If you, like so many others, were enamored early in 2023 by the top half of the Padres lineup — Fernando Tatis Jr.! Manny Machado! Juan Soto! Xander Bogaerts! Oh my! — you may need to take a seat before thinking about adding Ohtani to that mix. That presupposes San Diego holds onto Soto for 2024 (if not beyond), which may not be the case. Does Padres ownership have the financial backing and the stomach to sign both Ohtani and Soto long-term? If not, what if the Padres deal Soto and sign Ohtani this winter? They would have added power and strengthened their farm system, but not substantially improved their lineup for 2024. Who knows. Maybe that would work. Their roster did appear to be far better than their record in 2023.
On the pitching side, the Padres now have clear rotation needs — Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Rich Hill are all free agents — and Ohtani won’t be available to start next season. So, while the long-term view would look all right with Ohtani, Yu Darvish (signed through 2028), Joe Musgrove (signed through 2027) and some notable starter prospects reaching the upper levels of the minors, the immediate future needs addressing.
After narrowly missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa this past winter, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and the Giants could badly use a free-agent splash. They fell to 17th in average attendance in 2023, five spots lower than any other season since Oracle Park (née Pacific Bell Park) opened in 2000. Zaidi even talked of the importance of bringing in top talent in hiring manager Bob Melvin away from San Diego — the Giants wanted a skipper who could appeal to free agents. Logan Webb is the Giants’ only player under contract after 2025, so there is plenty of payroll flexibility over the long haul. Next season the Giants will hope for healthy seasons from Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Adding Ohtani to that lineup could certainly solve their issues with an anonymous offense that ranked 24th in runs last season and — yes, this bears repeating — hasn’t had a 30-homer hitter since Barry Bonds in 2004. From a pitching standpoint, Ohtani could provide a rotation cornerstone, giving the Giants some stability with Webb and heralded left-handed prospect Kyle Harrison for years to come. Despite the Giants’ issues in 2023, this club does a lot of things well. Adding a bona fide star is the step they need to take.
The addition of Ohtani would certainly satisfy a clubhouse and fanbase irked by Jerry Dipoto’s “54 percent” comments at the conclusion of a season where the Mariners narrowly missed the playoffs. With Teoscar Hernández set to hit free agency, Seattle could use another legitimate bat. The Mariners mostly mixed and matched at DH last season to the tune of a combined minus-0.8 bWAR. Their .688 OPS from their DHs in 2023 was the worst among teams on this list. Adding Ohtani could also give the Mariners more flexibility with their stash of young pitching — Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock and more — perhaps allowing them to trade for more positional talent. A 2025 rotation could feature Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and Ohtani. With Ohtani in the fold, he and Julio Rodríguez would be the faces of the franchise in Seattle for the remainder of the decade and maybe beyond.
The World Series champions are poised to be even better next year. But they stand to lose Mitch Garver, their primary DH down the stretch, to free agency. Ohtani would give a lineup that tied for the AL lead in home runs an epic boost, perhaps hitting cleanup behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis García. From a pitching perspective, the Rangers may elect to add a starter this winter but could stand pat. Ohtani can eventually replace Max Scherzer, whose contract expires after 2024. Ohtani would be a lift to every team on this list, but putting him in the heart of the Rangers’ order seems borderline unfair, regardless of what he might ultimately give them as a pitcher. But as much as money does not seem to be an object for owner Ray Davis, the Rangers are already committed to Seager through 2031, Semien through 2028, and Jacob deGrom is signed through 2027 with a club option for 2028. Ohtani would essentially guarantee years of steep luxury tax payments and the Rangers being unable to keep some of their complementary talent in the long term. So here is an interesting question: Is the pursuit of a dynasty worth adding another veteran with a history of arm issues to that big-money mix?
The Blue Jays have not yet moved to lock up their position-player core, so signing Ohtani would seem to be Step 1 leading toward a Step 2 of extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. In the near term, adding Ohtani would give Toronto a formidable top four in its lineup, with George Springer, Bichette and Guerrero. It would mean true off days, instead of DH days, for Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen (a free agent after 2024) when they’re not catching. It also would, in the distant future, probably prevent Guerrero from parking at DH for the back half of his career. But that point would be null and void if Guerrero doesn’t stay in Toronto, after all.
Toronto’s Opening Day rotation in 2025 could be Ohtani, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Ricky Tiedemann. (And maybe we’ll know what to make of Alek Manoah by then.) We say it again: formidable! Bassitt’s contract is up after 2025, Gausman’s after 2026, and Berríos’ after 2028. That still leaves a nice window in which the Blue Jays would boast one of the best rotations in the game.
(Top photo of Ohtani and Mookie Betts: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiSmh0dHBzOi8vdGhlYXRobGV0aWMuY29tLzUwMzc2ODAvMjAyMy8xMS8wNy9vaHRhbmktZnJlZS1hZ2VuY3ktdG9wLTEyLWZpdHMv0gFQaHR0cHM6Ly90aGVhdGhsZXRpYy5jb20vNTAzNzY4MC8yMDIzLzExLzA3L29odGFuaS1mcmVlLWFnZW5jeS10b3AtMTItZml0cy8_YW1wPTE?oc=5
2023-11-07 13:47:56Z
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