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At the NBA trade deadline, the Raptors painted themselves into a corner. On Friday, with free agency opening, they paid for it in two ways.
In February, they were on the periphery of the Play-In Tournament when they dealt for free-agent-to-be Jakob Poeltl. Sure, the roster, if you believed in its merits, needed a rim protector in the worst way. Poeltl also added a presence rolling to the basket that opened up the floor for others — most notably Fred VanVleet. With VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. having the option to choose free agency this summer, though, adding another core player set to hit the market was risky.
On paper, it would be nip/tuck to retain all three players, if that is indeed what the Raptors chose to do. The move certainly wasn’t worth it for the in-season results, as the Raptors bowed out in a home Play-In game. Even if you were more optimistic about what the Raptors could do with a proper centre, their offensive shortcomings had their ceiling fixed pretty low for 2022-23.
It also meant that, with even the slightest bit of market unpredictability, things might work against them in the summer. That took shape Friday, as the Houston Rockets agreed to terms with VanVleet on a three-year, $130 million deal. The Raptors kept Poeltl, agreeing to a four-year, $80 million deal, but the Raptors now have a massive hole on their roster and no sure-fire way to fill it for the long term. In the interim, the Raptors reportedly agreed to a two-year, $26 million contract with Dennis Schröder, who spent last year with the Lakers.
TORONTO RAPTORS! 🔥💯
— Dennis Schröder (@DS17_FG) July 1, 2023
The unpredictability the Raptors did not account for came in the form of the Rockets, who had been linked to James Harden since the winter. That was incorrect. It turns out that was an attempt to get a richer offer from Philadelphia. When that failed, he opted into the second year of the contract he signed last summer and asked for a trade, leaving the Rockets with a lot of money to spend. Houston ownership and management, meanwhile, went through enough losing and off-court immaturity that they were willing to spend their money on win-now players, or at least threaten to. VanVleet was their top target, and they were ultimately willing to go to a third year at VanVleet’s full earning potential to land him.
Realistically, simply matching the contract wouldn’t have been enough for the Raptors, given the difference between taxes in Texas and Ontario. It would have been irresponsible, considering that the Raptors do not have Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby or Scottie Barnes, their trio of versatile forwards, signed to long-term contracts to entertain the notion of paying VanVleet $43 million annually. Making things work at $30 million would have been tough enough.
The problem is everything they did leading up to Friday contributed to them surrendering leverage with both free agents, as well as potentially with teams around the league in trade talks. The first-round pick they surrendered for Poeltl showed that even if the Raptors didn’t rate the 2024 draft very highly, they had no intention of taking steps backward. In short, when they added win-now talent ready to hit the market instead of shedding it, they made their plans clear and left themselves with limited ways to pivot. Even if the trade market for VanVleet or other veterans didn’t shape up perfectly, going in the other direction — trying to improve the team in the short term at the cost of the long term — cost them some long-term flexibility.
They kept Poeltl, who helped the team tremendously. After the season was done, Raptors president Masai Ujiri referred to Poeltl as a “top-10 centre” and a “championship piece.” Given that and the acquisition cost, of course they were going to pay to retain him, even if it meant giving him a player option, as reported by ESPN.
The length of term should not be a big deal with a player who turns 28 in October and doesn’t have a long history of injuries, but Poeltl is a non-shooter next to Siakam and Barnes, two forwards without dangerous 3-point shots. It’s a fine deal, but how the Raptors manage to optimize him remains to be seen.
It will be difficult to do that without a shooting threat as a pick-and-roll partner. Even in a down shooting year, VanVleet demanded attention on and off the ball. Schröder isn’t much of a threat in the midrange, and he shot 35.1 percent on catch and shoot 3s last year, attempting only two per game. He rarely pulls up from 3. The Raptors were a bad shooting team the last two years, and now one of their primary ballhandlers is much less of a threat than the player he is replacing.
In all likelihood, Siakam and Barnes will take over even more of the ballhandling duties, but the spacing in those scenarios will be compromised too. Assuming the roster doesn’t change much from now until training camp, there will be huge pressure on Trent, who ultimately opted into his $18.56 million salary for next year, and first-round pick Gradey Dick to be accurate high-volume 3-point shooters. Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report and TNT reported the Raptors and Trent are working toward a long-term contract extension. The Raptors can offer Trent a starting salary up to about $26 million in 2024-25.
The Raptors could try to add to their guard rotation, which for now includes just Schröder and Malachi Flynn, by shopping an excess forward. The Raptors don’t need all of Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Otto Porter Jr. (to say nothing of Thaddeus Young, who still hadn’t been officially waived as of this writing), and perhaps there is a forward-for-guard trade out there. Again, though, that would probably cost the Raptors some draft equity.
That is why this goes back to the deadline and arguably before then. If the Raptors decide to deconstruct this roster, they are starting from behind in terms of draft picks. If they want to continue to win, they will have to do so without a quality starting guard.
Paying VanVleet that much money wasn’t a good option. Neither is the spot the Raptors find themselves in, with limited upward mobility and precious little certainty in the near future.
(Photo of Masai Ujiri: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWWh0dHBzOi8vdGhlYXRobGV0aWMuY29tLzQ2NTc0OTcvMjAyMy8wNi8zMC9mcmVkLXZhbnZsZWV0LXJvY2tldHMtcmFwdG9ycy1uYmEtZnJlZS1hZ2VuY3kv0gFfaHR0cHM6Ly90aGVhdGhsZXRpYy5jb20vNDY1NzQ5Ny8yMDIzLzA2LzMwL2ZyZWQtdmFudmxlZXQtcm9ja2V0cy1yYXB0b3JzLW5iYS1mcmVlLWFnZW5jeS8_YW1wPTE?oc=5
2023-07-01 09:34:49Z
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