TORONTO – A popular stat at this time of year is playoff probability, in which the projected performance of a roster and its current record are used to play out what’s left of the schedule in simulations run thousands of times. The results are then averaged out and voila, post-season odds.
For front offices, who typically have proprietary systems but also tend to check them against the top publicly available measures, the projections can be used, to varying degrees, as a factor in their decision-making. For fans, the measure can be useful in managing hopes and expectations while also assessing the legitimacy of their team’s chances.
For players, though, playoff probabilities have far less utility. Regardless of whether a team’s post-season odds sit at 100 per cent like those of the Chicago White Sox, or 8.7 per cent like those of the Toronto Blue Jays after Thursday’s 10-7 loss to the AL Central leaders, there can be no variance in their commitment, effort or level of engagement.
While executives and fans can wax and wane in their outlook based on the bigger picture, players must maintain a single-minded determination and let the chips fall where they may.
“I don't know what our playoff probability is or anything like that,” said Bo Bichette, whose RBI single preceded Marcus Semien’s second homer of the game during a five-run rally in the sixth that made things close, but not close enough.
“For me, it's we come here, prepare as hard as we can, play as hard as we can and that's all we can control. It doesn't really matter what anybody else is doing (in the standings). What they're doing is what they're going to do. We can't control that. We come here and give our best to win the game. That's all I'm worried about.”
To that end the Blue Jays continued to play with tenacity and energy in a disappointing 3-4 homestand, during which they squandered a pair of games to the Detroit Tigers and watched their playoff odds drop by about eight per cent.
As has often been the case during the 6-10 stretch they’ve trudged through since heading West on Aug. 10 with a probability of 46.9 per cent, their pitching and hitting once again didn’t line up in Thursday’s finale against the White Sox.
Hyun Jin Ryu didn’t make it out of the fourth, giving up a solo shot to Cesar Hernandez in the second, a two-run homer to Luis Robert followed immediately by Jose Abreu solo job in the third and a two-run double by Leury Garcia and Tim Anderson RBI single in the fourth.
All that quickly buried the first inning homer from Semien, which staked the Blue Jays to a 1-0 lead, and placed an unfair burden on an offence that hadn’t scored more than three runs in a game during the homestand before the finale.
The Blue Jays offence came around with a five-spot against Michael Kopech in the sixth to give themselves a chance, but the White Sox bullpen rolls deep and old friend Ryan Tepera settled things down in the seventh before Garrett Crochet in eighth and Craig Kimbrel in the ninth sealed the deal.
That the offence had its best day in a while led manager Charlie Montoyo to hope “this game gives us momentum going forward.”
But even with George Springer’s return looming as a needed boost, the Blue Jays still don’t look like the club that began the month with a 9-2 homestand in its Toronto return, a run that threw them right into the mix.
“I don't think a lot of things have changed,” Ryu said through interpreter J.S. Park. “I didn't really pitch well today, but every game we're trying to compete and trying to get back into the post-season, if possible. Again, every game from now on is very important for us, and I feel like it might have been a bit of a burden for some of our guys or the whole team in general. We just have to work through it and try to fight every game with a month-plus left in the season.”
Ryu pointed to his command in explaining the White Sox’s success against him the second time through the lineup, but also said he “pitched to where I wanted to and the hitters were just able to get on top of it.”
Either way, the Blue Jays now head into a stretch of opportunity with three games in Detroit over the weekend before returning home for a three-game set against the Baltimore Orioles. After an off-day next Thursday, the Oakland Athletics, one of the teams they’re chasing, arrive for a three-game series that gives them a chance to directly impact the standings.
If they want to make September interesting for themselves, they have to get going now, brushing off Thursday’s loss the way they did after the lost weekend against the Tigers to post steadying, late-inning wins against the White Sox on Monday and Wednesday.
“It starts with the guys who are in there every day setting the example,” said Bichette. “Whether you're doing well personally, or not doing well personally, it's continuing to show up every day and be the same guy, play with the same effort, the same intensity, prepare with the same intensity. I think we've done a really good job of that.”
And while the decreasing playoff probability can prompt fans to say the season is shot, Blue Jays players can’t allow the odds or the standings to impact the way they play on the field.
They’ll need every bit of the fire they showed in the dugout when Bryevic Valera charged home with the winning run on a wild pitch Monday and Alejandro Kirk knocked in the winning margin Wednesday, no matter how things play out.
“What's special about this team is we focus on what we can control,” said Bichette. “Every once in a while we'll get out of that, trying to make results instead of letting them happen. But I think we're special because we fight no matter what.”
More than ever, they’re going to need to do just that.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiX2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNwb3J0c25ldC5jYS9tbGIvYXJ0aWNsZS9ibHVlLWpheXMtZ2l2ZS1wbGF5b2ZmLW9kZHMtdGFrZS1hbm90aGVyLWhpdC12cy13aGl0ZS1zb3gv0gEA?oc=5
2021-08-26 22:51:00Z
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