Fierce internal competition driving Edmonton Oilers' over-achieving Bottom 6 - Edmonton Journal

Edmonton Oilers Derek Ryan (10) celebrates his goal on Nashville Predators goalie Juuse Saros (74) with teammate Devin Shore (14) during first period NHL action on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022 in Edmonton. Photo by Greg Southam /Postmedia

It was another milestone night at Rogers Place for Oilers’ superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton’s 6-3 win over Ottawa Senators on Tuesday. In potting his 128th and 129th points of the 2022-23 season, McDavid achieved the highest single-season point total of any NHLer this century, surpassing Nikita Kucherov’s super 128-point campaiga in 2018-19. That McDavid accomplished this with 14 games to spare is mind-blowing.

Then there’s Draisaitl, who in the words of coach Jay Woodcroft was “the best player on the ice by a country mile” in scoring 2 goals including the game winner, which doubled as his 100th point of the season. Leon delivered the goods in front of a resilient group of German fans, who three years ago wthis week were shut out of hockey action by the COVID pandemic which scuttled the 2018-19 season just as they arrived in Edmonton. (That those same fans were further rewarded with a splendid 2-goal performance by second star Tim Stutzle of Ottawa is storybook material.)

So it won’t surprise loyal readers that this post is mostly about what the Oilers do without their leading men. That’s just the way we roll here at the Cult of Hockey.

Don’t worry, I’m not referring to some after-the-apocalypse vision of the late 2020s Oilers where Leon and Connor have moved on to greener pastures. This is all about the here and now, of how the Oilers perform when #97 and #29 are catching their breath on the bench.

That very situation has been a horror story in the recent past, but in 2022-23 has resolved itself nicely, moreover has sustained deep into the season.

I delved into the WOWY* Factor of the McDavid/Draisaitl Era Oilers dating all the way back to its emergence back in 2015-16 in this post a couple of months back. Today let’s pick up the back end of that story focussing during Ken Holland’s time as Edmonton GM, and update it to the current day.

(*With Or Without You)

Holland’s job, like Peter Chiarelli’s before him, was to build a solid supporting cast around his exceptional core assets. While the veteran GM had some success bringing on fellow Top 6 players such as Zach Hyman and Evander Kane, his Bottom 6 struggled mightily to get the job done. Indeed, for 3 years this shortcoming was the club’s fatal flaw:

As we concluded when initially presenting this data in the above-linked post:

Amazing symmetry here in the final 2 columns: the McD-Drai axis produced goals at exactly double the rate of the others, while both groups allowed goals against at nearly an identical rate. We see in this section year-over-year improvement for 97-29 at the defensive end of the sheet, even as the rest of the team struggled mightily without them at a brutal 39% goal share… Overall the team was close to break-even at 5v5, but achieved success including 3 consecutive playoff berths on the backs of special teams and other manpower situations which were a collective +80 over the period.

But in 2022-23 the 5v5 dynamic has been flipped on its head.

[Source]

Despite a 54.4% share of Expected Goals, the top duo have seen their collective 5v5 Goals For share drop by 6% this season to exactly 50%, with the lion’s share of that change on the defensive side of the puck. But when the two stars are on the bench, the Oilers have seen their goal share soar by a remarkable 16% above the rate established over the prior 3 seasons to a very acceptable 55%. The identified group that had previously averaged a -25 goal share per season is an impressive +12 at 5v5 with just a sixth of the season remaining. Some of that is shooting “luck” but most is bought and paid for, noting the group’s impressive 52.4% share of Expected Goals.

5v5 play aside, McDavid and Draisaitl are more than carrying their weight on Edmonton’s brilliant powerplay unit which converts opportunites at a 31.6% rate that far outstrips all competition (Tampa’s 25.4% currently ranks second, over 6% back). That great PP production ensures that the Oilers are once again serious outscorers — currently +26 — in all other manpower situations beyond 5v5.

Of course the McDavid-less, Draisaitl-free “group” does not consist of the same players in the same combinations. The current season has seen a few welcome additions in the Bottom 6, a couple of welcome subtractions from that same group, and a significantly higher level of play overall.

Perhaps one driver is the increased level of internal competition, as players battle for ice time in the here and now and ultimately for a contract down the road. It’s an odd fact that with the notable exception of Evan Bouchard, virtually every Oiler on an expiring contract would currently be best defined as a Bottom-6 forward, 6 in all. Cheap contracts, mostly, even as their renewals might prove otherwise.

Let’s have a quick look, starting with a pair of 23-year-old players under club control:

Centre/winger Ryan McLeod: 55 GP, 11-11-22, +3,

He ranks fifth among Oilers forwards with 22 points, a mere 50 behind fourth-place Hyman. Nonetheless, his 0.40 points per game is decent bottom-6 production, especially when one considers he spends nearly 90% of his 5v5 ice time away from McD and Drai. 19 of his points have come at even strength, the other 3 on the penalty kill. McLeod signed a value contract at just $798,000 on the morning of training camp. He is certain to be qualified, though the price point will be higher going forward.

Winger Klim Kostin: 43 GP, 10-9-19, +13

He was acquired in a minor league trade at the beginning of the season, then recalled from the AHL a month later when Kane went down. So far Kostin has played over 7 hours of hockey at 5v5, some 85% of it without either McD or Drai on the ice. All 19 of his points coming at even strength. However, his Expected Goal share of just 48% and inflated PDO of 1057 suggest that this positive goal differential is unlikely to continue at such a rate. His usage by the coaching staff suggests they are guided by process at least as much as results. A bargain at the NHL minimum salary, Kostin too seems certain to be qualified; which he has arbitration rights his short history of NHL success won’t help his cause. Expect a 1-2 year bridge contract at an affordable rate.

The other 4 are all potential unrestricted free agents, each making his best case to earn an extension. Likely that 1 or 2 of these guys will be back; unlikely that all 4 will.

C/RW Derek Ryan, 66 GP, 12-5-17, +6

At 36, he is the senior citizen on the current squad by some margin. He’s been playing some inspired hockey with 6 goals in his last 20 games. Other than 1 shorthanded goal, all the rest of his points have come at even strength. He also chips in as a right-shot faceoff man and penalty killer. His 2-year contract at $1.25 million is winding down, and it may be he’ll have to take a haircut to stick around.

Winger Mattias Janmark, 52 GP, 6-13-19, +3

He signed a 1-year pact at that same $1.25 million. Its modest premium over minimum resulted in Janmark being waived for salary cap reasons to open the season. He got recalled after the Kane injury and has been a regular ever since. His modest offensive output is buttressed by his value as a reliable defensive forward and penalty killer. Best guess here is that time in the AHL might have him looking for new opportunities in the fall.

Centre/winger Devin Shore, 40 GP, 1-8-9, +7

6 of those points have come in the last 10 games, just at the time of 28-year-old’s greatest job insecurity. After a dizzying sequence of transactions between Edmonton and Bakersfield, the 28-year-old got his last best chance as an emergency recall last month, then started playing so well the coaches have been reluctant to pull him from the line-up.

Shore remains an underdog to stick around. His $850,000 cap hit drew much ridicule at the time of his signing but the industrious forward has silenced at least a few of the critics. A beloved teammate, he has an outside chance to receive a contract.

Centre/winger Nick Bjugstad, 64 GP, 15-11-26, +9 overall, including 5 GP, 2-1-3, +2 in Edmonton.

The late entry in the UFA sweepstakes, the versatile 30-year-old arrived in Edmonton with an impressive outscoring record for lowly Arizona this season, and has only expanded it since. Bjugstad’s unexpected arrival in Edmonton at the low low cap hit of just $450,000 allowed Holland to expand his roster to 22 players while adding an experienced veteran with a wide range of skills. So far so good. While the likeliest outcome is he’s another tall ship passing through town, I think it’s possible that a short-term extension might be in the works.

Bottom line

For all the furious competition that is going on among these forwards near the bottom end of both depth chart and payroll, on the ice they’ve clicked together nicely and appear to be putting team goals ahead of their individual ones. That’s the best approach for everyone in the short run, and the best way to prove their value, even as uncomfortable decisions lie ahead.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Player grades from, Edmonton’s 6-3 win over Sens

McCURDY: Will real Oilers stand up?

STAPLES: Sit Ryan McLeod? No way. Here are some more deserving candidates

LEAVINS: Oilers support players need to stay within themselves — 9 Things

McCURDY: How Mattias Ekholm impacts Oilers from top to bottom

Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

Join the Conversation

Adblock test (Why?)

https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFodHRwczovL2VkbW9udG9uam91cm5hbC5jb20vc3BvcnRzL2hvY2tleS9uaGwvY3VsdC1vZi1ob2NrZXkvZmllcmNlLWludGVybmFsLWNvbXBldGl0aW9uLWRyaXZpbmctZWRtb250b24tb2lsZXJzLW92ZXItYWNoaWV2aW5nLWJvdHRvbS020gG2AWh0dHBzOi8vZWRtb250b25qb3VybmFsLmNvbS9zcG9ydHMvaG9ja2V5L25obC9jdWx0LW9mLWhvY2tleS9maWVyY2UtaW50ZXJuYWwtY29tcGV0aXRpb24tZHJpdmluZy1lZG1vbnRvbi1vaWxlcnMtb3Zlci1hY2hpZXZpbmctYm90dG9tLTYvd2NtLzZkY2UyZTc1LTBjNDktNDRiMy1iY2MyLWQxZDQyNGFkMzRhYy9hbXAv?oc=5

2023-03-16 07:29:21Z
1837819842

Tinam Polo

Kamis, 16 Maret 2023