Projecting the Oilers' salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension - The Athletic

William Nylander’s new contract spells out in no uncertain terms that Leon Draisaitl’s next deal is going to be a whopper.

One agent, who spoke to The Athletic on the condition of anonymity because he doesn’t represent either player, said Nylander’s eight-year, $11.5 million AAV extension — signed Monday — has raised the bar for Draisaitl.

The Edmonton Oilers forward, who’s eligible to hit the open market after next season when the eight-year, $8.5 million AAV deal he signed in 2017 ends, is now looking at a minimum of $12.5 million on average over the same term and probably $13 million as the floor, the agent said.

“He can ask for what he wants,” he said. “Somebody’s going to pay Leon Draisaitl.”

Nylander is having a wonderful season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He leads the team in scoring with 54 points, tied with Connor McDavid entering play on Monday. Still, there’s no comparison between him and Draisaitl.

Nylander has 198 goals and 484 points in 558 NHL games. He’s never won a year-end award or even come close. He has 17 goals and 40 points in 50 playoff games.

Draisaitl has 324 goals and 786 points in 674 games. He won the Art Ross Trophy, Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award in 2019-20 when he was also named to the first-team all-star team. He was a second-team all-star last season. He has 31 goals and 77 points in 49 playoff games.

Nylander has mostly played wing in his NHL career, whereas Draisaitl has largely played centre — the more valuable and difficult position.

The only advantage Nylander has over Draisaitl is age. Though both players were selected in the first round of the 2014 draft — Draisaitl third and Nylander eighth — Draisaitl’s late birthday means he’s more than six months older.

Draisaitl not hitting free agency for another year prevents him from starting his next contract until he’s a couple weeks shy of 30 years old, whereas Nylander will be 28 in May.

It’s not insignificant that Draisaitl’s also been incredibly durable in his NHL career. He’s missed six games since becoming a regular 10 games into the 2015-16 season.

The Oilers were always going to have to pay handsomely if they wanted any hope of retaining Draisaitl beyond June 2025. It appears the Nylander contract has only driven up that price point.

Oh, and lest anyone forget, McDavid needs a new contract by July 1, 2026.

“How does it look for the Oilers if they’re spending at least $26 million on Connor and Leon?” asked the agent, who quickly acknowledged that figure was too low.

McDavid is bound to surpass the Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews and his $13.25 million AAV as the highest-paid player in the league. But the Oilers will have to sign Draisaitl first unless he opts for free agency considering McDavid can’t sign an extension until July 1, 2025.

Draisaitl’s status is more pressing. The Oilers will also have more flexibility when McDavid’s would-be contract kicks in because Mattias Ekholm ($6 million on the Oilers cap), Evander Kane ($5.125 million), Brett Kulak ($2.75 million) and Stuart Skinner ($2.6 million) all come off the books then.

Here’s what the Oilers’ depth chart and cap situation could look like in 2025-26, with the salary cap climbing to as high as $92.1 million, if Draisaitl signs an eight-year, $13 million AAV contract:

*Projections for players in need of new contracts under team control.

Whoa, that’s tight.

The Oilers could have around $80 million in commitments with a lot of work to do. The way things stand right now, the general manager would need to:

• add two top-nine wingers;
• replace Cody Ceci (whose contract ends after next season) as the No. 4 blueliner;
• get a fourth line;
• figure out the No. 6 defenceman spot (Vincent Desharnais’ deal is up July 1);
• get a backup goaltender.

Sure, there are ways to be a bit more cost efficient — trading Kulak comes to mind — but you get the picture.

The dead money here assumes netminder Jack Campbell has been bought out in the offseason, which, according to PuckPedia, results in a $2.3 million cap charge for the 2025-26 season. At least, James Neal’s buyout and Connor Brown’s games-played bonus overage will be paid off by then.

In terms of Oilers players in need of new contracts at the same time as Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard is the other big one.

Bouchard is UFA eligible in 2027 and has arbitration rights when his current $3.9 million AAV deal expires after the 2024-25 season. The Oilers didn’t have the cap space to sign Bouchard to a long-term contract last summer just as he was blossoming. He’s quickly becoming one of the best defencemen in the NHL, making his next deal costly enough.

It would behoove the Oilers to push for a lengthy extension as soon as possible — meaning July 1. Bouchard’s progression and the 2025-26 salary cap’s ascension indicate he is going to get a massive raise on his next contract.

This $8.5 million projection might even be a tad low considering some of the top blueliners like Charlie McAvoy ($9.5 million cap hit), Adam Fox ($9.5 million), Cale Makar ($9 million) and Quinn Hughes ($7.85 million) will all be several years in their respective deals. The economic landscape in the league is in the process of changing.

The Oilers simply can’t let Bouchard get to a year away from UFA before extending him like they did with Darnell Nurse — albeit under different circumstances thanks to a pandemic and Oscar Klefbom’s career ending.

Ryan McLeod’s $4.5 million projection is purely a guesstimate, but it’s one based on a mid-to-longer-term contract. Like Bouchard, McLeod is an RFA with arb rights in the summer of 2025 and can hit the open market in 2027.

The Oilers should have determined by the end of McLeod’s current $2.1 million AAV deal if he’s a core piece — that is, the third-line centre — for the foreseeable future. There are no indications they don’t feel that way, so, as with Bouchard, they should try to lock him up sooner rather than later.

Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg will be RFAs without arbitration rights in the summer. Neither has made much of a case for a major raise. A low-cost, one-year contract in the offseason is probably the play, provided Broberg remains with the organization. After that, they should be in line for a bit more money — and perhaps a lot more with productive 2024-25 campaigns.

It’s hard to guess on any prospects or farmhands being on the roster 21 months from now. Xavier Bourgault and Ty Tullio will be waivers eligible then, so they’d be good candidates to wear Oilers jerseys if they’re not traded. However, Raphael Lavoie had the same status in training camp in the fall and the Oilers risked it anyway and subjected him to the wire.

Suffice it to say, the Oilers will need several players on cheap contracts — regardless of age — given the way things are going with their budget.

That’s especially the case if Draisaitl’s next contract increases by 65 percent or more. Nylander and his reps probably just made it more costly for the Oilers.

(Photo of William Nylander and Leon Draisaitl: Curtis Comeau / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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2024-01-09 17:23:42Z
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