Though there were lots of significant trades made over the weekend (and over the last 10-ish days), there are still a couple of big names in Vancouver that are in the rumour mill. One of them is JT Miller, who has taken a lot of the frustration towards the team's lack of success. The Canucks gave an update on Miller:
They said it’s not trade-related but his name has been rumoured for much of the season. Regardless, he didn't play Monday night and we'll see what the rest of the week holds.
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As if the Cole Perfetti injury weren't enough, add another to the list for Winnipeg in the form of Pierre-Luc Dubois as he’s a game-time decision for tomorrow’s game:
This doesn’t seem to be a big issue but definitely something to monitor with fantasy head-to-head playoffs underway (or around the corner).
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It was a very busy weekend in the NHL from a trade perspective. Shout out to the people that are running Trade Deadline shows on TV, YouTube, or elsewhere, because there may not be much to talk about on Friday. The last few days alone saw Nino Niederreiter head to Winnipeg (Ian's take on that here), Vegas pick up Ivan Barbashev from St. Louis (fantasy slant here), and the big one was Timo Meier finally going to New Jersey in a trade that saw double-digit players/picks/prospects swapped. Ian also did that write-up and it can be found here. For the rest of the trades that have happened, and will happen this week, be sure to check our Trade Breakdown section.
Before chiming in on those, just a reminder that the trade deadline is this Friday, March 3rd. For people that may be new to the Dobber site over the last year-ish, there will be trade breakdowns posted to the site all day long on Friday, whether from Dobber, Ian, Alex, or myself. It may take time for each to be posted, but unless there's a lot that happens at once, readers can generally expect a fantasy breakdown of significant swaps within an hour of the trade being announced (bigger ones can take two hours). It is a good way for readers to keep up on what certain deals mean for their fantasy rosters this season and seasons down the road while not working at their desk. Wins all around.
With that out of the way, let's talk about the significant pieces and what they mean. I will not go over the prospects because none are important right now, and we have an entire Dobber Prospects site for that! Data will be used from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.
As a Montreal fan, it was always curious to me that Brendan Gallagher never got more ice time given how good he was in the minutes he got. (Seeing how his body has started to break down a bit lately, I get it now.) The same can go for Niederreiter who has never skated 17 minutes/game in a full season and his 16:03 in Nashville this season is a four-year high. New coaches can always see players in a new light, but this is four franchises for Nino with the same usage, more or less, and Winnipeg is the fifth. Cole Perfetti averaged 15:41 in the four games before his injury. So, yeah, about 16 minutes for Nino makes sense. As Ian noted in his fantasy takes, the Perfetti injury likely means a top-6 slot for Niederreiter with secondary PP time.
This is where we note Nino has not been the same player this season that he's typically been, but in a good way. His shot attempt rate of 14.6 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is his highest mark for any season where he's played at least 40 games. He is also landing 8.9 hits per 60 minutes, a 10-year high. It is putting him on pace to crack 180 shots for just the third time in his career, and he is also pacing for a 10-year high of 164 hits. A guy who can post 25 goals, 40 points, 180 shots, and 160 hits is a valuable fantasy performer.
The unlucky part for Nino is he's going to a Winnipeg team that is 29th in 5-on-5 scoring since January 1st. That is driven largely by shooting percentage, though, and a move to skate with, say, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers is not the same as skating with Tommy Novak and Juuso Parssinen (Niederreiter was on PP1 at practice, too). Nino fantasy owners have to be happy, and it gives him more value for next year as well.
This is one of those players where we have to separate real-world value from fantasy value. In the real world, Barbashev struggles defensively. That is not conjecture, either, as Evolving Hockey has his expected goals against impacts at 5-on-5 these last few years as rating very, very poorly:
To be sure, some advanced defensive metrics aren't always airtight, even over a few seasons. But this even bears out in actual goals against numbers. Barbashev's most-common 5-on-5 line mate these last three years was Brayden Schenn. With Schenn and Barbashev on the ice, the Blues give up 3.0 goals per 60 minutes, a number that is 2.8 when Schenn is on the ice without the Russian flank. Jordan Kyrou gives up a bit more in goals against (3.2 compared to 3.1) without Barbashev but that can be chalked up to save percentage. Vladimir Tarasenko also allowed more goals (3.3) with Barbashev than without him (3.0). So, generally speaking, the defence got worse and the goals against followed. Maybe a new coach fixes that, and we'll find out soon enough. My money wouldn't bet on it.
However, defence doesn't matter for fantasy as long as it doesn't cost him ice time. He had been earning heavy minutes of late in St. Louis, and Vegas is depleted up front right now. The 26-goal scorer from 21-22 could easily slot on a line with Jack Eichel and skate 17 minutes a night. As Ian said in his breakdown, it likely means PP2 minutes as well, so Barbashev still plays very well in banger leagues. Unless he starts shooting more, though, he won't play well in leagues that don't count hits.
And for the coup de grâce, we have 30-goal power forward Timo Meier going to New Jersey in a trade that saw a lot of pieces go to either side. Ian stated in his fantasy trade breakdown that this is a grab-bag of a return for San Jose and that's about where I stand. Maybe some of these guys hit, but New Jersey held onto at least their top-3 prospects, so that's a win for them. Sharks fans should look to their own Karlsson trade to see what the return could net them if all goes well.
Let's start with the negative: there should be long-term concern here. If Meier is traded by New Jersey in the offseason, it doesn't matter, but if they extend him, it's a horse of a different colour. Meier will be 27 years old for 2022-23. There are only a handful of players that fit Meier's profile over the last 15 years, which is as follows: at least 7000 total minutes, at least 150 goals, and at least 1.5 hits per game. There are some success stories like Alex Ovechkin, Evander Kane (though his daily availability has long been an issue), Nino Niederreiter, and Gabriel Landeskog (which is an assumption because he hasn't played yet this year due to injury). There are also a lot of landmines like Brayden Schenn, Milan Lucic, and Wayne Simmonds that started declining pretty hard in their late-20s and are now varying levels of bot-6 NHLers in their early 30s. Some guys had other issues – Mike Richard and Bobby Ryan come to mind – but it's not a guarantee the player Meier is today carries for the next five years. If they extend him and can get three more similar seasons like this one, that should be a success.
Therein lies the problem. A long-term extension could really help the next few years but can it beyond that? This isn't a Tampa Bay or a Boston that is tying up its Cup hopes in this season or next – New Jersey is built to contend for the rest of this decade. Ondrej Palat's contract is already starting to look shaky, and they can't really afford to have two anchors three years from now. It's not an easy decision to make.
From a fantasy perspective, he will obviously slot in the top-6 but it's a matter of which line. All due respect to Nico Hischier, but Jack Hughes has very few comparables across the league when it comes to generating offence. That isn't conjecture, as Corey Sznajder's tracking data has Hughes among the elite tier of forwards in scoring chance contributions at 5-on-5:
Hischier has still been good in this regard, but closer to names like David Perron and Taylor Hall rather than Nathan MacKinnon or Sidney Crosby. There is a reason why the team has scored over a half-goal more per 60 minutes with Hughes on the ice than Hischier.
I do think Meier ends up with Hischier. Meier has been skating 19 minutes a game for two years against top competition out in San Jose. That is exactly what New Jersey needs next to Hischier for his shutdown matchups, which is probably what they signed Palat for in the first place. (It made me wonder if this trade happens if 2022-23 Palat is playing more like he did from 2019-22, but I digress.) Anything can happen, but my expectation is that Meier is with Hischier and not Hughes. This isn't a death-knell, either. Hischier and Tomas Hertl are fairly similar offensively, so it seems like just a lateral move for the Swiss winger. What could hurt is less ice time but that doesn't seem likely.
This should be a lot of fun to watch. Fantasy players (speaking for me, at least) were clamouring for Timo to get more ice time/consistent top PP minutes in San Jose and it finally happened these last two season. The issue was the team was (and is) on a big downswing when it finally happened. Now he's going to a team on a big upswing and he should have a consistent role with a better supporting cast. What this trade means for seasons to come, well, we can talk about that in the summer. For now, New Jersey is considerably better than they were, and it gives New Jersey the top-line winger they needed to complement Jesper Bratt as they march towards the postseason.
Just to touch briefly on Jeannot and the return, we just went through this last year with Brandon Hagel. Maybe an extra pick or whatever, but Hagel cost two first-round picks when Tampa Bay acquired him, and he has as many points in 22-23 as Alex DeBrincat. Jeannot has seen a shooting percentage crash this season but for his entire career, his goals/60 rate (0.83) is a second-line rate comparable to, quelle surprise, Hagel at 0.84. Whether Jeannot works out as well as guys like Hagel, or Blake Coleman, or Barclay Goodrow, or Nick Paul, well, that's why they play the games. But the price for a mid-20s RFA middle-6 winger that can be extended for very cheap was established last year at two first-round picks. This year, one of those firsts turned into a second rounder and a slew of lower picks. Good for Nashville for getting a lot of late kicks at the can, but if even one of those late picks turns into a Jeannot-type player in five years, it does nothing for Tampa Bay's current core. They are taking the swings that Pittsburgh won't, and it's reflected both in their Cup odds and their current standings positions.
Anyway, fantasy-wise, the hope is Jeannot can slide onto the second line in Alex Killorn's spot. That could put Jeannot in a position to improve immediately. More likely, though, is a bottom-6 spot and basically just a transfer of production from Nashville. Like Meier, this seems lateral for Jeannot fantasy-wise, at least for this season, if he doesn't get moved to the top-6. A positive shooting percentage regression would go a long way, though.
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2023-02-28 07:00:51Z
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