The 2019 football season has been a bizarro season for me so far. I've often found that the way things are supposed to work is that I make money betting college football on Saturday, then I turn around and lose those profits betting NFL games on Sunday. It's a time-honored tradition, and one I've always been comfortable with.
This season has been very much the opposite. I'm killing it in the NFL so far this season, but instead of trying to figure out why, I'm just going to go with it. Stick to the same formula I've been using through four weeks that has me off to a 9-3 start to the season.
I'm sure nothing will regress to the mean. That never happens!
1. Ravens -3.5 at Steelers
You'll have to forgive me if I'm not going to believe that what the Steelers did to the Bengals on Monday night is a sign that they've figured things out. That was just one bad team going up against a team that's even worse and taking advantage of it. Even if the Ravens got their butts handed to them by the Browns last week, the Browns have the kind of offensive talent that can do that to you. The Steelers don't. I mean, not unless you think Mason Rudolph throwing the ball three yards at a time is an explosive offense anyway. The Ravens bounce back this week.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 17
2. Bears at Raiders: Under 40.5
As a Chicagoan, I can confirm that there is plenty of debate in this city over whether the Bears are better off with Chase Daniel at quarterback than Mitch Trubisky. I can also confirm that this is a tradition in Chicago that's gone on since the dawn of time. The backup QB is an icon in this city, as it's not used to having a good starter. Chase Daniel comes in against Minnesota, averages 6.5 yards per attempt, and he's seen as some kind of savior. Anyway, the point is, Trubisky or Daniel, the Bears offense isn't good. Nor is the Raiders offense. But you know what is very good? The Bears defense. I'd recommend taking the under in every Bears game until given a reason otherwise.
Prediction: Bears 17, Raiders 10
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3. Buccaneers at Saints: Under 47
Tampa got into an unexpected shootout against the Rams last week, winning 55-40. What might be a bigger surprise is that Tampa's defense might be good. Seriously, the Bucs defense ranks sixth in Football Outsiders' DVOA stat, even after last week's Rams game. The Saints rank 24th. That's why I was leaning a bit toward taking the Bucs and the points here, but then I realized I'd be counting on Jameis Winston to play well two weeks in a row, and in a spot he should play well in. Everybody knows Jameis only plays well when it's least expected. So instead I'll make a play on this total.
Prediction: Saints 23, Bucs 20
| Record | Units | |
|---|---|---|
Last Week | 3-0 | +3 |
Season | 9-3 | +5.7 |
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-5-best-bets-not-buying-the-steelers-monday-blowout-and-what-to-bet-in-londons-bears-raiders-matchup/
2019-10-03 12:06:00Z
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